An Analysis on Best Picture


I was just making out my predictions, and I don’t remember a year that was so open! Especially on my best picture list. This makes prognosticators jobs all the more interesting. I’m trying to decide on my Best Picture predictions. In my opinion, there are 5 locks

The Artist 
War Horse 
The Descendants 
The Help 
Moneyball 

Hugo is also very likely to be nominated, though it seems the support has died down in recent weeks, but the Scorcese factor will probably take it all the way to a nomination, and is a pretty universally well-liked film. So:

The Artist 
War Horse 
The Descendants 
The Help 
Moneyball 
Hugo 

Midnight in Paris has had a critical resurgence towards nomination time (as most Allen Oscar caliber films tend to do). Loved by the Globes and SAG, and now after today’s PGA inclusion, it seems that we have our seventh nominee:

The Artist 
War Horse 
The Descendants 
The Help 
Moneyball 
Hugo 
Midnight in Paris 

I think that critics support seems to be split between Drive and The Tree of Life. I don’t know if it’s the best move to predict both to make it in. But it seems both were ignored by PGA, which is never a good sign. Surprisingly, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did make it in. I would suggest that the guilds are backing TGWTDT, but it received 0 SAG nomination. The lack of box office glory, plus the sour attitudes the cast is giving off in promotion, may hinder it’s ability to score the nom. Tree of Life is more of the Academy’s style, but I could even see some of the older members responding well to Drive also. In the end, I think Tree of Life is the most likely to make it in. It has a strong director and a cast that will feature two probable nominees (albeit from different films), but with no SAG or Globe love, it’s difficult to get the industry’s grasp on it. What does this mean?

The Artist 
War Horse 
The Descendants 
The Help 
Moneyball 
Hugo 
Midnight in Paris 
The Tree of Life 

Then there’s Bridesmaids. A little raunchy girl-power comedy that has been showing up week after week at critics awards and scored big nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG, and PGA; all but cementing it as a Best Picture contender.

Final Predictions 

The Artist 

War Horse 

The Descendants 

The Help 

Moneyball 

Hugo 

Midnight in Paris 

The Tree of Life

Bridesmaids


I’m also holding out for a random and undeserved inclusion, like My Week with Marilyn or The Iron Lady. Not predicting it, but won’t rule it out as a possibility.

I love this year’s race!

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