I can’t believe it’s finally time, but alas, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces their nominations on Tuesday morning.
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
“Midnight in Paris”
The Academy has made things exciting by announcing they will nominate between 5 and 10 nominees. I think they’ll go with 7.”The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” is a quasi-risky pick but I can’t ignore the power of the WGA, DGA, and PGA.”Moneyball” might miss, but it’s been that film that just always been a filler nominee all season, so I don’t expect that to change. I wouldn’t be surprised if “Bridesmaids” or “The Tree of Life” got a nomination. “Bridesmaids” has the PGA and WGA nomination, and “The Tree of Life” seems to have a really large passionate following. “Drive” did well with critics so it could also show up.
Woody Allen…”Midnight in Paris”
David Fincher….”The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Michel Hanazavicius…”The Artist”
Alexander Payne…”The Descendants”
I’m not gonna bet against the DGA. They pretty consistently match up and are usually the most accurate precursor. Though it’s possible Tate Taylor or Terrence Malick could get in over Fincher.
George Clooney…”The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio…”J Edgar”
Jean Dujardin…”The Artist”
This category has been pretty clear for a while. I think Fassbender has peaked at the right time and will have no trouble. Dicaprio could be snubbed in favor for Belchir, but I’m pretty sure these are your 5.
Glenn Close…”Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis…”The Help”
Tilda Swinton…”We Need to Talk about Kevin”
Meryl Streep….”The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams…”My Week with Marilyn”
It really kills me to not predict a Mara/Olsen/Theron upset over one of these ladies. But predicting anything other than this line-up seems like a bad idea. If “Dragon Tattoo” does well then Mara could slide in in favor of Close.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh…”My Week with Marilyn”
Strong category in terms of quality. It’s been these five for awhile now. Despite showing major strength early on, Brooks could actually be SNUBBED in favor of Armie Hammer or Max Von Syndow
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo…”The Artist”
Jessica Chastain…”The Help”
Octavia Spencer…”The Help”
Shailene Woodley…”The Descendants”
I’m kind of already regretting putting Woodley instead of Janet McTeer. I think it’ll boil down to which film the Academy likes more, clearly “The Descendants.” I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oscars do a switch on Chastain and nominate her for “The Tree of Life” or “Take Shelter” instead; it seems like something they’d do. Spencer’s the frontrunner and McCarthy has been campaigning well and has done very well at some critics awards.
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen….”Midnight in Paris”
Michel Hazanavicius….”The Artist”
Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo…”Bridesmaids”
I think Mills for “Beginners” is my biggest guess of the season. I think people are underestimating how loved the film is outside of Plummer. I could be wrong in not predicting McCarthy for “Win/Win” of Farhadi for “A Separation.”
Best Adapted Screenpaly
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash…”The Descendants”
Steve Zaillian…”The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Tate Taylor…”The Help”
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, Stan Chervin…”Moneyball”
Love this line-up. Seems pretty tight. Don’t think there’s really a spoiler. Maybe “Ides of March” or “War Horse”
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Jeff Cronenweth…”The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Emmanuel Lubezki…”Tree of Life”
Janusz Kaminski…”War Horse”
Guillaume Schiffman…”The Artist”
I wouldn’t be surprised if “Drive” showed up here or “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.”
I’m gonna stop there. I hope I’m wrong and this year becomes mysterious. These are of a basic observation of the season thus far. Hoping for an Elizabeth Olsen upset in Actress. Looking forward to the surprises.